How has the grand coalition needed to govern Australia changed in 2011?
What got me thinking about this was a piece in the Age (for those outside Victoria — seen as a nominally inner-city Left paper, with the occasional Right balance piece) — outlining Labor’s loss of bedrock support (something I argued here, extended here, and in more length here).
After party officials finalised their numbers earlier this month they found that 2100 members in Victoria – 16 per cent of the 13,000 members of last year – had not rejoined. …
Former finance minister Lindsay Tanner has argued that the primary motivation for government is merely to look like you are doing something while not offending anyone who matters. It is “all special effects, no plot”.
Here’s Ian Munro the full article in The Age
Trend analysis (unique to 2thinknow) explains that coalitions have changed viable plans — and require innovation. Here’s a very short summary of a few more thoughts (consider this a Part 3).
In today’s economy, the Left is not the same.
I have a different interpretation. The Grand Coalition of the Left has changed, as have a few of the values. But broadly speaking, the ideal of lowering costs for those struggling, and giving opportunity to the less advantaged should still be there. But the issue is this — working men (and women) of the trades are now the most advantaged class.
In Australia — butchers, nurses, teachers, police, soldiers, scientists, clerks, I.T., call centre workers, bank tellers — these are the new lower-paid professions. Small businesses once affluent like newsagents, chemists or cafes may be screaming for relief from rising costs.
The largely contract working man or coal miner is doing very well thank you in terms of income. Quite a few earn more than a Masters-degreed manager or scientist. As I said here, a 7-11 job can pay better than entry-level / general non-specialised I.T. Specialized labor does best of all.
For anyone in the 2000s the fastest path to wealth — become a plumber, service affluent clients, buy properties renovate them, churn them — and in 10 years you can be a millionaire in Australia.
Are tradespeople really struggling because they are blue collar? Wages data supports (and also under-reports this), but see this for yourself — ask anyone at a 7-11 who spends the most discretionary money? Tradespeople. Whilst white collar types with families count out the week’s beer money, many blue collar trade-workers keep spending. The construction industry has been responsible for the property boom, so has done well from Howard’s Right, and now Rudd/Gillard/Swan’s Left.
This has reduced broad-based innovation in Australia, as I argued in interview reproduced in Chris Zappone’s article in the Age and explained further here.
It’s the destruction of a true middle class that is why the middle is screaming despite the ‘aggregate numbers’ being OK.
Lessons in changes of the grand coalitions.
The far Right Tea Party in the USA learnt that the grand coalition of Right governments has changed. In Australia, the grand coalition of Right governments — also changed with Howard. Those changes were to create a self-employed ‘White Van Class’ and favour tradespeople (even with the GST, which arguably favors self-employed cash-in-hand tradespeople above all other businesses).
Now the Left has to learn the Left coalition has changed. And it’s not the loudest voices who have the insight.
Also the technology, structures, ideas, ideals, and grand unification of any grand coalition has changed. Unless you allow new innovation and ideas into the Left — you will entrench a 3-way DLP-style (social welfare) plus hard-Left Green split.
To change, political parties must first accept change. The ideas of Demos or the last great Blair-Labor period (not great for the Left in my view, as I have argued since 2006 in many places) — are dead and buried.
So the New Left may need those new innovation ideas. Or, what?
ABOUT: My employer, 2thinknow provide innovative ideas, metrics, innovation training and policy advice as a service to different centrist government’s at a city, state and national level. 2thinknow do this via data, training and analysis. We also publish the Innovation Cities Index — analyzing and ranking the world’s innovation economies at a city level, for 289 cities (including major Australian cities) based on underlying 162 indicators in 2010.