As is often said in politics, the only poll that counts is the one on election day.
Certainly, the data from long time polling shows a massive variability to poll day results. Poll data is obtained via survey of voting intentions. This uses a sub-set of voters
a) available
b) willing and
c) selected.
(New technologies are impacting polling accuracy too.) This sub-set forms a microcosm of the macrocosm of national voting intention when processed using statistical methods by each pollster.
So how do you read today’s Newspoll of ALP 30% support if you’re interested in the electoral data in Australia?
In general the further a poll gets into ‘bedrock’ support territory the more worried politicians get. So 30% is deep in bedrock. But that said, perhaps an analysis of the behavioural reasons might challenge that view.
Here’s 7 psychological insights in behavioural responses to change that may explain the poll result.
1) Carbon tax will raise cost of living (current issue)
2) Electricity companies ripping off consumers
3) Banks ripping off consumers
4) Supermarket/everything duopoly raising prices to support lower milk/bread prices (i.e ripping off consumers)
5) Lack of belief politicians will act on consumers being ripped off
6) Belief that politicians can act on consumer prices
7) Belief that politicians are acting to make prices more expensive.
The point: There is a deep suspicion that Left politicians want to raise the cost of living.
And, many intellectual hard-Left voters (university Marxists et al) have moved to the Greens (the Protest party).
It is not (just) the leadership of the ALP, it is about ‘policies that raise the cost of living’.
So the ALP is getting a 10-12% points protest vote about ignoring cost of living.
Actual support I believe would put the actual ALP support would put the support at 10-12% higher giving the ALP 40-42%, and Coalition around the same, with greens losing support as people examine their pay-packets. 2PP probably is closer towards 48% ALP, 52% coalition, but this may be misleading. (*)
Of course an alternate simplistic way to examine the Newspoll data is:
LEFT 30+15% = 45% (Labor + Greens)
RIGHT = 45% (Coalition)
In short where we were at the election. The data on the 2 party horse race is in other words tighter than one would think. Perhaps, it’s a 3 way horse race.
For the record, politicians can act to lower the cost of the living for the majority, can act to prevent asset bubbles, can act to regulate quality of goods and services (and prevent rip-offs). So the Greens may have a point…
Links:
Newspoll: http://resources.news.com.au/files/2011/03/07/1226017/334899-110308-federal-newspoll.pdf
[*Note this paragraph has been corrected at 8.44pm 8/03/11]